Galaxy Digital Needs a Category Re-Rating
The market continues to price Galaxy Digital as a crypto-native merchant bank; high beta, volatile earnings, and tightly tethered to the price of Bitcoin. That framing is increasingly outdated.
As of early 2026, Galaxy is in the middle of a structural transition: from a crypto-financial intermediary into a power-constrained AI infrastructure platform, backed by one of the largest approved power footprints in North America. The disconnect between how the company is evolving and how it is being valued is where the opportunity lies.
From Crypto Beta to Infrastructure Ownership
For most of its public life, the “Galaxy trade” was straightforward. When crypto prices rose, Galaxy’s trading, lending, and asset management businesses benefited. When prices fell, earnings followed.
That model still exists; but it is no longer the center of gravity.
Galaxy’s Helios campus in Texas represents a fundamental shift in the business. What began as a mining-adjacent asset has evolved into a hyperscale data center platform positioned at the intersection of AI demand and power scarcity. The crypto operating business remains important, but its role has changed: it is now a self-funding engine, not the primary source of long-term value.
This distinction matters, because infrastructure businesses are valued very differently from crypto financials.
Power Is the Real Bottleneck
The AI boom is often framed as a race for GPUs. In reality, it is a race for energized, interconnected land.
Across the U.S., large-scale data center development is increasingly constrained by grid access, transmission timelines, and regulatory approvals. Interconnection queues are measured in years, not months. Power, not silicon, is the binding constraint.
Against that backdrop, Galaxy’s position at Helios stands out.
In January 2026, Galaxy received ERCOT approval for an additional 830 megawatts at the site, bringing total approved capacity to over 1.6 gigawatts. This is not a speculative application sitting in a queue, it is power that has cleared the relevant planning hurdles.
To put that scale in context:
ERCOT is currently backlogged with hundreds of gigawatts of large-load requests.
New greenfield data center projects routinely face 36–48 month delays for grid interconnection.
Large, contiguous parcels with secured power are increasingly rare.
Scarcity, not speed, is the moat.
The most underappreciated aspect of Galaxy’s transition is not operational, it is multiple expansion.
Today, the market largely values Galaxy like a crypto financial firm, assigning low-to-mid single-digit EBITDA multiples that reflect earnings volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Infrastructure assets, by contrast—particularly hyperscale data centers with long-term leases are typically valued at 20x–30x EBITDA, reflecting their contracted, recurring cash flows.
This creates a meaningful valuation gap.
Under its existing lease structure, the initial phase of Helios is expected to generate substantial annual rent under a triple-net arrangement with very high incremental margins. As additional capacity is underwritten by institutional-grade tenants, the infrastructure segment alone has the potential to support a valuation that rivals, or exceeds, Galaxy’s current enterprise value.
The market is not ignoring this because it disagrees. It is ignoring it because the cash flow has not yet appeared.
That changes in Q1 2026.
Galaxy is on track to deliver its first data hall during the quarter, marking the transition from “construction in progress” to cash-generating asset. This is the moment when Helios stops being an option and starts being a business.
Markets are notoriously skeptical of future optionality. They respond to rent checks.
Once revenue begins flowing, investors can begin underwriting Helios like infrastructure; modeling lease economics, margins, escalation, and duration. That shift in mindset is often what precedes a re-rating.
Reframing the Crypto Business
None of this diminishes the importance of Galaxy’s digital assets platform. It simply reframes its role.
In 2025, Galaxy’s trading, lending, and advisory businesses generated more than $500 million in operating revenue through a volatile market. That cash flow provides two critical advantages:
Internal funding for capital-intensive infrastructure development
Embedded upside if regulatory clarity and institutional adoption accelerate
Rather than competing for capital with Helios, the crypto business supports it.
Galaxy does not need to rely on constant equity issuance to build. It is, to a meaningful extent, generating its own growth capital.
The Real Risk Has Changed
For years, Galaxy’s primary risk was macro: crypto prices, sentiment, and regulation.
Today, the dominant risk is far more traditional, execution.
Deliver Phase 1 on schedule
Commission assets without cost overruns
Secure high-quality tenants for the remaining approved capacity
Finance expansion without compromising the balance sheet
If management executes, the market will be forced to reconsider how it categorizes the company. If it doesn’t, the stock will continue to trade like a volatile financial intermediary.
The mispricing in Galaxy exists because the market is focused on last year’s P&L. The opportunity lies in next year’s rent roll.
Galaxy no longer needs a crypto supercycle to justify upside. It needs Helios to work.
If it does, the category, and the multiple, changes.
